NATO meets as support for Ukraine wavers – POLITICO

NATO MINISTERS IN TOWN       

NATO MEETS AS WESTERN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE WAVERS: NATO’s foreign ministers will gather in Brussels today for a two-day meeting, their first since the Vilnius summit in the summer.

They’ll have a lot to discuss: Despite all the vocal reassurances of steadfast support for Kyiv, the fact is both Brussels and Washington are struggling to keep their word, amid disappointment over Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive and leaders’ attention shifting to the Middle East.

Mood music: While ministers meet in Brussels, Russia’s witting or unwitting aides — Hungary in the EU, and parts of the Republican Party in the U.S. — are blocking funding and defense packages worth tens of billions.

Why it matters: Some European leaders say the U.S. deadlock means they will have to shoulder a larger share of the cost of helping to defend Ukraine. But on top of that, EU unity on Ukraine is simultaneously being undermined.

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Background: Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is currently blocking a €50 billion EU top-up package to help Ukraine over the coming years. Orbán has also blocked a €500 million tranche of military aid.

Strategic discussion: In a letter obtained by POLITICO, Orbán demanded the EU hold a “strategic discussion” to reassess its goal of helping Ukraine fight off the Russian invasion. Hungary would not be able to agree any new aid for Kyiv or sanctions on Russia before that discussion is had, he wrote.

Joining the party: Down the line, difficulties maintaining a united EU could be exacerbated by fresh faces, including left-wing populist Robert Fico in Slovakia and far-right populist Geert Wilders in the Netherlands — who have both vowed to end their country’s support for Ukraine.

NATO ASPIRATIONS: Ministers will be joined on Wednesday by their Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba, who’s set to receive reassurance from NATO on continued support for Kyiv’s “path to NATO membership,” the alliance’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said.

Playing ball: “We will agree recommendations for Ukraine’s priority reforms,” Stoltenberg told a press conference Monday, Stuart Lau reports.

Stating the obvious: A statement between NATO and Ukraine is expected to be issued after the meeting concludes on Wednesday. Diplomats say the choreography is in part a lesson from Vilnius, where imperfect communication led to a misunderstanding over a draft text between NATO countries and Kyiv, resulting in President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s dramatic social media outburst just hours before he arrived at the summit.

MORE TO TALK ABOUT: The issue of “instrumentalized” migrants is also on the table at the meeting. “In recent weeks, Moscow has been facilitating the arrival of migrants at Finland’s border with Russia, prompting the closure of border crossing points,” Stoltenberg said. Finland says the Kremlin is “instrumentalizing” migrants as part of “hybrid warfare” against its neighbor.

Iran is on the agenda too: “We have seen drone and rocket strikes on U.S. positions in Syria and Iraq, as well as attacks on commercial shipping. This underlines the risk of escalation. Iran must rein in its proxies,” Stoltenberg also said.

China is not an adversary … but: Ministers will also “address the challenges China presents to our security,” according to Stoltenberg. While saying China isn’t an adversary, he added: “Beijing’s actions challenge our security. And we must work together to respond.”

What about Sweden? NATO diplomats are increasingly frustrated about the lack of progress made by Turkey on Sweden’s membership bid. The Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee recently abruptly delayed a vote on the matter, prompting further concerns about Ankara’s game among European allies.

MORE ON RUSSIA’S WAR       

MALTA TO CHAIR OSCE: Foreign ministers of the 57 countries that form the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe are expected to meet later this week to sign off on a deal to install Malta as the next chair of the Vienna-based organization.

Showtime: Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken are both planning to attend the meeting on Wednesday in Skopje, North Macedonia — but they are not scheduled to meet each other.

Breaking the deadlock: The news of a preliminary deal to elect a new chair — which is crucial to keeping the organization running — was first reported by Security and Human Rights Monitor. But the plan faces criticism in the Baltics and Ukraine, which see the compromise as a victory for the Kremlin. Russia had blocked Estonia’s bid for the role, which threatened to collapse the organization, Jacopo Barigazzi reports.  

Background: The OSCE is one of the few bodies that brings together Western countries such as the U.S., the U.K. and the EU with Russia — and could be useful after the war in Ukraine, according to diplomats. The organization is already involved on the ground in de-mining operations.

NOT A RUSSIAN VICTORY: The foreign minister of North Macedonia, Bujar Osmani, who as current OSCE chair brokered the deal, said he had tried all possible solutions and originally fully backed Estonia — but had to ultimately find a compromise candidate. In Brussels, on his way to today’s NATO meeting, Osmani sat down with Jacopo and Playbook to discuss the developments.

Keeping it going: “I don’t think Russia has been that happy with the work of the OSCE,” he said, when asked whether Estonia’s loss was a Russian victory. By keeping the OSCE “alive, by keeping it functional … we will have an instrument,” he said.

Safe, for now: “We have won, the democratic world, those who pursue international rules-based order.” And with this deal “the organization, I can say, is safe.” 

On why the OSCE matters: The organization has faced criticism in Brussels that it had outlived its purpose and failed at preventing the war in Ukraine, but several officials, including Osmani, insisted it could play a crucial role in monitoring any potential cease-fire or peace deal. “I think OSCE will be the one to jump in if there will be peace in Ukraine,” he argued.

LAVROV IN SKOPJE: Osmani confirmed the attendance of Russia’s Lavrov at the meeting in Skopje later this week, adding his country had granted all the necessary visa and travel permits and was now in talks with Greece and Bulgaria for overflight rights. Diplomats say that some EU ministers from the Baltics, as well as Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, could refuse to attend as a result. “We are still working on bringing them all to Skopje,” Osmani told us — adding he will continue pushing for it today at the NATO meeting.

Who will meet Lavrov? The Russian foreign minister claimed that some Western countries requested to meet him while in Skopje. But Osmani refused to disclose the agenda. 

UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT CHAIR IN BRUSSELS: Ruslan Stefanchuk, the chair of Ukraine’s parliament, will visit Brussels today for the first time since the war broke out. Stefanchuk will have a discussion with the political group leaders of the European Parliament and will sign a memorandum of understanding between the Parliament and Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada. The Parliament is also planning a permanent presence in Kyiv, according to a statement seen by POLITICO.

RUSSIAN HACKERS SET ALARM BELLS RINGING: Russia’s notorious hacking group Fancy Bear (aka APT28) has targeted at least seven European governments recently with spearphishing campaigns in an attempt to gain access to sensitive information.

High threat level: The EU’s Cyber Emergency Response Team distributed a note earlier in November, seen by POLITICO’s cybersecurity reporter Antoaneta Roussi. “We assess that the threat level posed to [EU institutions and agencies] by this activity is high,” the team wrote.

Be bear aware: The warning serves as a reminder that cyberattacks could shake up next year’s EU election. Fancy Bear was behind the 2015 hack of the German Bundestag and became world famous by hacking the U.S. Democratic National Committee’s emails, disrupting the 2016 presidential election that saw Donald Trump elected. Read Antoaneta’s full story here.

EU’S CHINA PROBE       

COMMISSION INTERVIEWS ITSELF ABOUT CHINESE CARS: The Commission’s trade department has started its own podcast, and will today feature an interview with its own enforcement officers about its bombshell — and highly geopolitical — investigation into Chinese subsidies for electric cars.

Background: As Playbook scooped, the Commission decided to probe Chinese e-cars for subsidies that harm EU industry, a move very much welcomed by France. The investigation could result in tariffs or other import restrictions — but any final decision will ultimately be taken by EU countries.

The alternative view: The Commission’s lead investigators have, shall we say, a more public-facing explanation for how the probe came about — one that sounds much less political. “After me and colleagues read things in newspapers … we started to actually look into this issue … and on that basis we have put together a file that allowed us to recommend to our political masters to launch the investigation,” trade enforcement Director Martin Lukas says in the podcast, out today and previewed by Playbook.

Avoiding solar panel repeat: Lukas also offers a crucial argument as to why Brussels thinks it must start the investigation now, as Chinese e-cars are starting to enter the market. He pointed to the solar panel fiasco — where China swamped the EU market and destroyed the Union’s producers. The EU was “too late” to react in that case, he said. By the time Brussels decided to impose restrictions, China had already won: “There was already a big market share of Chinese solar panels, there were certain vested interests.” This time, Brussels wants to act sooner.

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ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR       

CEASE-FIRE EXTENSION: Qatar’s foreign ministry said that the truce between Israel and Hamas would be extended for an extra two days, as 11 more hostages were released by Hamas and Israel freed a further 33 Palestinians from prison. Further hostages are expected to be released over the next two days. More from the BBC.

BORRELL SETTLEMENTS WARNING: EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell issued a strongly worded warning against Israel’s much-criticized settlement building. Speaking on Monday, Borrell said: “The violence spread by extremist settlers in the West Bank, many times under protection from the Israeli police and military, does not make Israel safer. The settlements are Israel’s greatest security liability.”

Funding for settlements: Borrell added that he was “appalled” that Israel’s government “plans to allocate another $43 million to increase the settlement activities and I have condemned it.”

Israel’s response: When asked about Borrell’s statement, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that “in the budget that’s being approved today, there is no funding for new construction,” in the West Bank, according to the Times of Israel. Instead, the funds are for “security needs” Smotrich said.

PUTIN HIJACKS ISRAEL-GAZA WAR: The Israeli-Hamas war has given Russia a golden opportunity to sow division among its Western enemies. It’s a chance President Vladimir Putin’s disinformation machine was never going to miss. The lies spread by Moscow’s digital propagandists now include claims that Hamas terrorists are using NATO weapons to attack Israel and that British instructors trained Hamas attackers, Mark Scott reports.

IN OTHER NEWS       

POLITICO 28: Today we launch the POLITICO 28 Class of 2024: A list of the 28 most powerful people in Europe to watch out for in the year ahead. Compiled by Playbook’s own Zoya Sheftalovich, drawing on the expertise of the entire newsroom, 24 of Europe’s most powerful can be viewed right here — the top four will be unveiled at the POLITICO 28 event this evening. Details on how to tune in below.

Choosing the 28: Curious about how we chose the POLITICO 28? Zoya explains how this year’s ranking revolves around a central theme: Can Europe’s moderates drive back the fringes? Read more here.

NEW PROPOSALS TO FIGHT IRREGULAR MIGRATION: Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva  Johansson will today host a global conference to counter migrant smuggling, and plan to launch new legislative proposals to crack down on smugglers, Jacopo reports. Johansson will unveil a new regulation on how to boost coordination among agencies and Europol, while Brussels will also propose a new directive to sharpen the definition of smuggling, converge penalties across the EU and to extend jurisdiction in international waters. 

GREEK TRAGEDY: Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis lashed out at his British counterpart Rishi Sunak on Monday in a bitter escalation of a long-running dispute over the Parthenon Marbles. The two were scheduled to meet today, but Sunak called off their meeting late on Monday — a move Greek government officials attribute to Mitsotakis’ recent strong insistence upon the return of the ancient sculptures from the British Museum. Nektaria Stamouli has more.

HOW MOROCCO TRIED TO CORRUPT PARLIAMENT: With the branding of the European Parliament’s corruption scandal as “Qatargate,” it’s easy to overlook another major player — Morocco. Despite allegations by Belgian investigators that the Moroccan state masterminded a multi-year corruption operation aimed at the heart of EU democracy, no European leader has officially condemned Rabat. Elisa Braun and Barbara Moens bring you the inside story of Morocco’s role in the scandal.

GERMANY’S FAR-RIGHT PREDICAMENT: “Germany is currently confronting one of the gravest challenges to its democracy since the Nazi regime — and its political establishment thinks the solution might be to ban the country’s second most popular political party,” James Kirchick of the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression writes in an opinion article for POLITICO. He argues that banning the far-right Alternative for Germany is not the answer.

AGENDA       

— The annual POLITICO 28 event takes place in Brussels, showcasing the most powerful people in Europe. Watch at 9 p.m. See the list of 24 names here, with the top four most powerful unveiled during the event.

— International Conference on a Global Alliance to Counter Migrant Smuggling takes place in Brussels. Opening session by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at 9 a.m. … closing session by Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson and Spanish Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska at 4 p.m. Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders, Neighborhood and Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi and International Partnerships Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen will also be attending. Full agenda. Watch.

— Ursula von der Leyen also receives Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol.

— NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs meet in Brussels. Doorstep by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at 11 a.m. … meeting of North Atlantic Council at 1:30 p.m. … press conference at 4:30 p.m. Full agenda. Watch.

— Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council. Arrivals at 9 a.m. … press conference at 12:45 p.m. Agenda. Watch.

— Environment Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevičius is in Lithuania; attends the Ukraine Green Recovery Conference at 10:15 a.m. Watch.

— Press conference by European Parliament President Roberta Metsola and Chair of the Ukrainian Parliament Ruslan Stefanchuk at 10 a.m. Watch.

— European Council President Charles Michel is in Paris for Strategic Agenda consultations.

— Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is in Paris; delivers a keynote speech at the World Nuclear Exhibition.

— Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis receives Dutch Foreign Minister Liesje Schreinemacher … receives President of the German Retail Association Alexander von Preen.

— Cohesion and Reforms Commissioner Elisa Ferreira is in Bucharest, Romania; meets with Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu … delivers a speech at the Conference on the Future of Cohesion Policy: Green and Digital Transformation Supported by EU Funds.

**What will the future of Europe’s connectivity look like? Join us this week at POLITICO Live’s event “Connectivity for all: EU’s vision for a competitive sector” and hear our panel speakers discuss the Digital Decade 2030 targets. Register today to watch online!**

BRUSSELS CORNER       

CABIN CREW STRIKE AVERTED: A strike of cabin crew at Brussels Airlines planned for December has been called off following a meeting between unions and management on Saturday. Staff will now be consulted on a proposal put forward by the airline’s management.

RENOVATION WORKS POSTPONED: Renovation works on the Arts-Loi and Belliard tunnels have been postponed until 2025 due to “procedural reasons,” according to the office of Mobility Minister Elke Van den Brandt. The works were due to start next year. BRUZZ has more.

SCHOOL BOMB THREAT: Around 30 schools in Brussels and the Walloon Brabant region were closed on Monday due to bomb threats. You can find a list of affected schools here. The schools are expected to reopen after police checks.

SPAGHETTIFEST PROCEEDS: Brussels Helpt’s “Spaghettifest” raised more than €84,000 from 5,000 spaghetti servings over the weekend, with the proceeds going to a homeless charity. BRUZZ has the details.

RECORD NUMBER OF RAIL COMPLAINTS: Belgium’s ombudsman service for rail passengers has received a record number of complaints for late or canceled trains in 2023, with an increase of more than a third compared to last year. Around 37,000 trains have been canceled this year.

ENFORCING SPEED LIMIT FOR BIKES: Flanders aims to install speed cameras on bike paths in order to better enforce cycling speed limits. The measure follows the increase in popularity of cycling, which also led to a record number of cyclist deaths in 2022.

CALLING ALL IRISH SPEAKERS: Conradh na Gaeilge an Bhruiséil, a group promoting Irish language, heritage, and culture, will have their official launch today at the Irish Embassy in Brussels. There will be live music, chats and speeches. Register and join at 6 p.m.

STIB UPCYCLING EXHIBITION: The outdated orange ticket-validating machines used by the STIB network up until 2016 have been transformed by artists, including by some with disabilities. Inclusive Art & Upcycling can be seen at Bourse station between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. as part of Disability Week until Sunday.

Speaking of Disability Week: Brussels has organized various events to mark Disability week, running until December 3. You can find them here.

NEW JOB: Reinhold Brender has joined Belgium’s Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations. Brender was previously the head of division at the EEAS in charge of Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands States.

BIRTHDAYS: Former Latvian Prime Minister Māris Kučinskis; MEPs Lucia Ďuriš Nicholsonová, Balázs Hidvéghi and Romana Jerković; Former MEP Liadh Ní Riada; Former French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, now the mayor of Le Havre; U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.

THANKS to Stuart Lau, Jacopo Barigazzi, Zoya Sheftalovich, Barbara Moens, Antoaneta Roussi, Laurens Cerulus, editor Jack Lahart and producer Seb Starcevic.

**A message from Equinor: Equinor has decades of experience safely storing CO2 in the Norwegian North Sea, and we are now pursuing new business models to make CCS commercially viable in the decarbonised Europe of the future. The Northern Lights project will start storing CO2 in 2024, and the new Smeaheia license has the potential to store 20 million tonnes of CO2 annually, which we would like to transport to Norway from Belgium and Germany through a new pipeline connection.**

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