EU’s Ukraine ammo targets collide with reality – POLITICO

DRIVING THE DAY       

EU’S AMMO TARGETS FOR UKRAINE COLLIDE WITH REALITY: As foreign and defense ministers meet today in Brussels, they face a harsh reality: The growing disconnect between their pledges and their real deliveries of ammunition to Ukraine.

A million rounds of ammo sent to Kyiv by next March — that’s the self-imposed deadline set by European leaders. So far, the EU has achieved less than a third of that target. Some 300,000 rounds have been shipped since February 9 under a program to send shells from national stockpiles, according to a senior EU official, as my colleagues Josh Posaner and Laura Kayali report.

The other challenge: No deal is expected on topping up the European Peace Facility (EPF) — the off-budget EU fund that finances military aid to Ukraine — with a proposed €20 billion over the next four years.

Not to mention Orbán’s blockade: Hungary isn’t about to unblock the latest tranche of €500 million from the fund for Ukraine either. “The message is that we continue to stand by Ukraine, but it takes time, you can’t do this overnight,” one senior EU official said.

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Reimbursement slowdown: Diplomats complain that the blockade is leading to delays in reimbursing military gear across the bloc. “Yes, there is a backlog,” conceded one, adding however that military aid didn’t decrease because of that.

Magic numbers: The issue is not a lack of political will — Kyiv announced on Friday that Lithuania had transferred two launchers for anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine — but rather a discrepancy between that will and the reality of Europe’s industrial capacity. EU leaders should not have come up with the figure of 1 million rounds of ammunition to begin with without assessing whether it was doable, a former top military official said.

European Peace Facility refill on life support: While European diplomats are not burying the Commission’s plan to top up the EPF with €20 billion, there’s an increased focus on needs for improvements as well as bilateral aid to Ukraine. “The EPF is politically important and a mechanism of solidarity, I’m not going to declare it dead, but improvements can always be made,” a senior EU diplomat said on Friday. Another EU diplomat insisted the fund should be used more for joint procurement between member countries.

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR       

ISRAEL CANNOT REOCCUPY GAZA, SAYS BORRELL: Israel cannot reoccupy Gaza after concluding its war with Hamas, the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell said on Monday while presenting his vision of what comes next, ahead of his trip to Israel and the Palestinian territories this week, Jacopo Barigazzi reports.

On the same page: Borrell’s comments align with a similar warning from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had said last week that his country would take “overall security responsibility” for Gaza “for an indefinite period” after the war.  

CEASE-FIRE CALLS GROW: The Club de Madrid, an influential group of former presidents and prime ministers, has become the latest international group to call for a cease-fire. The organization, which is meeting in Brasília this week for its Annual Policy Dialogue, called for Israel and Hamas “to enter into a comprehensive ceasefire immediately … and avoid an escalation that will only bring more suffering to the region and potentially the world.” 

Heavy hitters: Among the members of the club are big names like former U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, former Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, former European Commission President Romano Prodi and former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet.

Conscience of humankind: Club de Madrid chief Danilo Türk, a former Slovenian president, told POLITICO there’s an urgent need for a cease-fire. “The way things have developed in Gaza has shocked the conscience of humankind — 11,000 people killed in a few weeks. We want to express our firm hope and demand for a cease-fire. We hope that this could then gradually lead to conditions for political talks and a two-state solution.”

ISRAELI LABOR LEADER HITS OUT AT GLOBAL LEFT: Meanwhile, the leader of Israel’s Labor Party says something has gone “very wrong” with the global left, with some progressives appearing to align themselves with Hamas, who oppose the rights of women and LGBTQ+ people. In an interview with my colleague Eddy Wax, Merav Michaeli said: “It’s important for me to emphasize to them that when you do not very strongly go against Hamas, and what it does in Gaza including to its own people, you are complicit.”

WILL BIBI STAY OR GO? Israel has many political fault lines, but whether Netanyahu should go now or later has become a key one, writes Jamie Dettmer.

HUNGARY       

PARLIAMENT SLAMS SPANISH PRESIDENCY FOR FAILING TO HOLD HUNGARY TO ACCOUNT: Spain has failed to hold Hungary to account for its breaches of fundamental freedoms under the Article 7 procedure, MEPs complain. Hungary has been in a standoff with the EU for years over rule-of-law concerns, and along with Poland has been subject to Article 7 proceedings, which could lead to a suspension of voting rights in the bloc.

Background: While Hungary’s Viktor Orbán continues to undermine individual freedoms as his “illiberal democracy” turns authoritarian, the EU has remained largely silent over the past months — partly because the Spanish presidency prioritized other matters.

Breaking the silence: Now, the European Parliament’s rapporteurs on the situation in Hungary — from across the political spectrum — are criticizing the Spanish presidency of the Council. “We are writing to express our utmost disappointment about the Spanish Presidency of the EU’s reluctance to make progress on the Article 7(1) TEU procedure towards Hungary,” they said in a letter to Spain’s EU state secretary and to the country’s ambassador to the EU.

Cross-party missive: The letter, penned by Green rapporteur Gwendoline Delbos-Corfield and co-signed by the rapporteurs of the Socialists and Democrats, the European People’s Party, Renew and the Left, can be read here.

What’s next: Parliamentarians are urging the Spanish presidency to put Hungary’s Article 7 procedure on the agenda of the next EU affairs ministers’ meeting on November 15.

ORBÁN’S LGBTQ+ OBSESSION: Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán’s pet think tank in Brussels has published a paranoid report arguing the EU has “weaponized” LGBTQ+ rights to persecute “the nation state” and go after Eastern European countries.

Stunning irony: It’s an astounding exercise in reversing the facts — given Budapest has increasingly demonized minority rights, using the attacks to rail against the “liberal” EU and mobilize conservative rural voters.

Curious: The report makes no mention of Hungary’s most famous anti-LGBTQ+ activist: József Szájer, Orbán’s former right-hand man in Brussels, who was caught at an orgy with naked men and drugs present during the pandemic lockdown.

MEANWHILE, IN BRITAIN       

DAVID CAMERON’S BACK: U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s shock decision on Monday to appoint former PM David Cameron as foreign secretary was met with surprise and humor in Brussels. Reminder: Cameron resigned as PM after calling and losing the Brexit referendum in 2016.

Is this really the guy you want? After gambling with (and losing) the relationship with Britain’s closest neighbors, Cameron again showed his foreign policy prowess when he took on a job lobbying for the Chinese communist regime earlier this year — becoming the smiling face of Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative, as Eleni Courea reported.

EU speechless: Asked about Cameron’s new job, a spokesperson for the Commission said: “We have absolutely no comment.”

Awkward: My colleague Andrew McDonald analyzes how Cameron’s appointment could become a problem for Sunak. And here’s more from Bethany Dawson on all the other big moves of Sunak’s Cabinet reshuffle.

Never say goodbye: POLITICO couldn’t pass up the opportunity to pull together a compilation of other unbelievable political comebacks.

**To mark the launch of POLITICO PRO Defense, we’re giving you a live taste of our experts’ coverage at the POLITICO Live Defense Launch event on November 21. Get ready for an exciting joint interview, panel discussion and networking cocktail reception. Last chance to apply for onsite attendance! **

IN OTHER NEWS       

BORRELL WARNS OF SÁNCHEZ’S DEAL WITH SEPARATISTS: Josep Borrell — himself a member of Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist PSOE — said on Monday that the party’s agreements with Catalan separatists gave him “some concern or quite a few concerns.” While saying he did not want to express his opinion publicly yet, Borrell did add: “All those who know me in Spain and know my previous personal and political trajectory can imagine what I think.”

Amnesty deal: My colleagues Aitor Hernández-Morales, Eddy Wax and Nick Vinocur write today on how Sánchez’s deal with the Junts party is blowing up on the EU stage, as the prime minister’s Socialist allies trade blows with European conservatives, who accuse him of undermining the rule of law. More here.

PORTUGUESE GOVERNMENT CRISIS: Portuguese Infrastructure Minister João Galamba resigned on Monday, days after being indicted as part of a corruption probe into lithium mining schemes in northern Portugal, Aitor writes in to report. Galamba was secretary of state for energy between 2018 and this year, when he was promoted to the infrastructure post. He said his resignation did not represent a recognition of guilt and that he remained at the authorities’ disposal.

POLISH OPPOSITION TAKES CONTROL IN PARLIAMENT: Poland’s parliament has a new speaker: Szymon Hołownia, whom deputies backed over the Law and Justice candidate. The move underlines that Donald Tusk’s three-party opposition coalition now controls Poland’s legislative agenda — and PiS is on the back foot, as Wojciech Kość reports.

CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS: The Commission, Parliament and Council struck a deal Monday on the EU’s plan to diversify away from China its supply of critical raw materials, needed for green and digital transition technologies. The agreement needs to be formally adopted by the Parliament’s plenary and ministers before the rules can enter into force, Antonia Zimmermann reports.

REPORT — EU CARBON TAX COULD HIT EMERGING COUNTRIES MOST: The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism — which puts a price on an import’s intrinsic carbon emissions to compensate for the carbon price that EU producers pay — could hit emerging countries most, according to a Boston Consulting Group report out today. “The carbon tax could apply to … more than 25% of the exports of India, and more than 40% of the exports of Egypt and Turkey, both major producers of iron, steel, and fertilizers,” write the authors. The report argues emerging markets should adapt to reduce the carbon content of their exports.

MEANWHILE, IN TRUMPWORLD: A Ukrainian MP who in 2019 helped former U.S. President Donald Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani in his search for dirt on Joe and Hunter Biden has been charged with treason in Ukraine, reports Veronika Melkozerova.

TRUMP’S SISTER DIES: Maryanne Trump Barry, a retired federal judge and Trump’s oldest sister, died aged 86 at her home in New York.

AGENDA       

— Foreign Affairs Council continues in Brussels. Arrivals at 8 a.m. … doorstep by High Representative Josep Borrell at 8:15 a.m. … doorstep by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at 8:30 a.m. … press conference at 3:30 p.m. Agenda. Watch.

— Informal meeting of housing ministers in Gijón, Spain. Arrivals at 8:50 a.m. … press conference by the Spanish presidency and the European Commission at 3:15 p.m. Agenda. Watch.

— European Council President Charles Michel is in Copenhagen for an informal dinner on strategic agenda consultations with a group of EU leaders, including Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.

— Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets President of the German Confederation of Skilled Crafts and Small Businesses Jörg Dittrich.

— 2023 ESPAS annual conference on building Europe’s future at 9 a.m. Commission Executive Vice President Maroš Šefčovič, Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib, European Parliament Vice President Marc Angel and Germany’s Europe Minister Anna Lührmann deliver opening remarks … other speakers include author Anu Bradford … MEP Radosław Sikorski … Director of Carnegie Europe Rosa Balfour. Agenda. Watch.

— Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis hosts the Business Roundtable on Economic Security.

— Neighborhood and Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi delivers a keynote speech at the Executive Committee meeting of the Centrist Democrat International on the main challenges facing the European neighborhood … delivers a keynote to the Turkish Business and Industry Association to mark the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Turkey at 7 p.m.Watch.

— Commission Vice President Věra Jourová meets via video conference with CEO of Warner Music Group Robert Kyncl … receives Vice President of Netflix Madeleine de Cock Buning.

— Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni receives French Secretary of State for European Affairs Laurence Boone … receives Icelandic Finance Minister Þórdís Kolbrún Reykfjörð Gylfadóttir … delivers a speech at the Annual Research Conference 2023 organized by DG ECFIN.

— Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson delivers a keynote speech via videoconference at the ReBuild Ukraine International Conference … delivers an opening speech at the Euroheat & Power Summit … delivers a keynote speech and participates in a panel discussion at the European offshore wind industry: a wake-up call event.

— Financial Services Commissioner Mairead McGuinness is in Singapore; meets with Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister of Singapore Lawrence Wong.

— Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders is in Washington. Participates in the EU-U.S. Justice and Home Affairs ministerial meeting.

— Budget and Administration Commissioner Johannes Hahn receives Swedish EU Affairs Minister Jessika Roswall.

— Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides delivers a keynote speech at the UNCAN.eu closing event, Towards A European Federated Cancer Research Data Hub … holds a videoconference call with Canada’s Health Minister Mark Holland … holds a videoconference call with WHO Director General Special Envoy for Climate Change and Health Vanessa Kerry.

— Equality Commissioner Helena Dalli is in Madrid, Spain; joins the International Conference on Gender Equality organized by the Spanish presidency of the Council of the EU.

— Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visits Berlin and meets German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at 11 a.m.; joint press statement at 12:30 p.m.

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BRUSSELS CORNER       

JOUROVÁ’S ON INSTA: The EU’s digital chief Věra Jourová has a new Instagram account. Her first post takes followers on a tour of some of her favorite places in Prague.

NEW BIKE PARKING SPACES: Brussels will introduce 2,500 new secure bicycle parking spaces located in car parks over the next three years, Mobility Minister Elke Van den Brandt announced Monday. It’s all part of Van den Brandt’s Bicycle Master Plan. The cost of the parking will be €15 a year for regular bikes and €30 for cargo bikes.

The data: The aim is to install one parking facility per week, as the number of cyclists in Brussels is expected to increase by 7 percent this year. Currently, around 11,000 cyclists are waiting for a parking space. Belga has more.

ENERGY ISLAND: Belgium will build an artificial energy island — a world first, according to grid operator Elia — off the country’s coast to provide electricity generated by wind turbines in the North Sea. The island will also become a central hub for new interconnectors with other countries like the U.K. and Denmark. Elia has also presented measures to protect biodiversity during the construction of the island, which should be built by 2026.

ACTIVISTS BLOCK BELLIARD: Activists from BXL FOR PALESTINE blocked traffic on Rue Belliard on Monday morning. Police broke things up, but the group warned more disruption will follow. On Sunday, other activists illuminated the headquarters of the Commission with a giant projection of messages including “Ceasefire now,” “Stop the war on children” and “Choose love not war.”

MARCH AT THE AIRPORT: Around 600 people, mostly local residents, gathered at Brussels Airport on Sunday to protest against the extension of its environmental permit, which is set to expire in mid-2024. The protesters called on the government to ban night flights and introduce a low-emission zone, among other demands, and threatened to go to court if the permit is extended.

ICONOSTASIS EXHIBITION: A new exhibition combines the work of two visual artists, Gianluca Cosci and Sébastien Forthomme. You can visit Iconostasis at Queens Brussels on Friday and Saturday between 11 a.m. and 6 p.m. and by appointment until December 16.

ROCK WERCHTER UPDATE: Dua Lipa will be performing at Rock Werchter 2024 in Belgium, the organizers announced Monday.

BIRTHDAYS: MEPs Heidi Hautala and Bernd Lange; Former MEP Constance Le Grip; European Commission’s Miha Žebre; King Charles III turns 75; Former United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

THANKS to Laura Kayali, Josh Posaner, Suzanne Lynch, Jacopo Barigazzi, Aitor Hernández-Morales, Eddy Wax, Playbook reporter Ketrin Jochecová, editor Jack Lahart and producer Seb Starcevic.

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