Dear readers,
Welcome back to EU Politics Decoded, where Benjamin Fox and Eleonora Vasques will bring you a round-up of the latest political news in Europe and beyond every Thursday. In this edition, we look at the early moves by EU leaders as they position themselves ahead of next June’s European elections.
Editor’s Take: The art of pre-election positioning
Even politicians are supposed to go on holiday in August. This year, however, the summer break did not stop the leaders of the European centre-right and left from going on manoeuvres.
Frans Timmermans’ return to domestic politics to lead the left-green alliance ahead of November’s general elections gives the Dutch Labour Party its best chance to claim the prime minister’s post in two decades.
Victory in November’s elections, after more than a decade of Mark Rutte’s centre-right premiership, would be a significant scalp for the European centre-left. But his departure from the Commission leaves a big hole in Brussels.
The Socialist lead candidate ahead of the 2019 European elections, as Commission vice president and Green Deal tsar, Timmermans has been the centre-left’s key figure in the Von der Leyen Commission, pushing forward a raft of EU climate change and environmental legislation and emerging as one of the leading climate diplomats at the annual COP summits.
In July, the Socialists secured a major victory – albeit by the narrowest of margins – when they defeated EPP attempts to derail the EU nature restoration law.
Timmermans’ departure and replacement with Wopke Hoekstra, foreign minister in Mark Rutte’s government and a Christian Democrat, is a significant tactical blow to the centre-left, who want to put climate action at the heart of their campaign next June.
Pleas by the Socialist and Democrat group that the climate action part of Timmermans’ portfolio should stay with their family – Slovak former diplomat Maroš Šefčovič, who has been assigned to take over Timmermans’ role as European Green Deal, is from the centre-left – have fallen on deaf ears.
Meanwhile, EPP leader Manfred Weber has also been setting out his stall, making a two-day visit to Tunisia this week. EPP officials say that Weber wants the EU to rethink its neighbourhood strategy in terms of relations with the South Mediterranean.
Lest we forget, Von der Leyen agreed a €785 million cash-for-migrant control deal with the Tunisian government in July, which the Commission – backed by EU governments – wants to use as a model for similar deals with other countries in North Africa.
The trip – which Weber made as EPP leader without being accompanied by any other EPP MEPs – also suggests that Weber wants to put himself in the frame for a top EU job ahead of the June polls.
Meeting Tunisian President Kais Saied, the country’s border forces and Interior Ministry is a clear attempt by the EPP leader to stake out the ground on migration control. Current opinion polls suggest that nationalist and far-right parties will likely make the most gains next June, potentially at the expense of mainstream conservative parties. EPP officials say they want to outflank the far-right by demonstrating to Europeans that irregular migration is being addressed.
These are early moves, but they are likely to set the tone and the political ground on which the election campaign is fought.
Capitals-in-brief
Germany to declare Georgia, Moldova safe countries to easily reject asylum bids. The German government will make it easier to reject asylum applications from Georgia and Moldova by classifying them as safe countries of origin in legislation that was passed by the cabinet at a two-day retreat at Meseberg Castle and will now go through parliament, the Interior Ministry announced on Wednesday.
Politicians question France’s doctrine in Africa amid Gabon coup. While radical left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon accused French President Emmanuel Macron of having supported incumbent president Ali Bongo until the end, Marine Le Pen pointed to the- in her words- pitiful results of the government’s African policy.
Belgian PM rejects undocumented migrant regulation to address unemployment. Prime Minister Alexander De Croo (Open VLD, Renew) positioned himself against a proposal aiming to regulate undocumented migrants – which was issued to address the unemployment crisis in Wallonia – on Wednesday.
Swedish Liberals and far-right clash over school’s duty to report illegal children. An argument broke out between the ruling Liberals and their ally, the far-right party, Sweden Democrats, over the obligation for schools to report children from undocumented families on Wednesday.
Inside the institutions
EU mulls sanctions against Niger junta. Following in the footsteps of the West African regional body ECOWAS, the EU aims to slap the same sanctions on the junta that seized power in Niger several weeks ago, EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell confirmed in Toledo, Spain on Wednesday (30 August).
EU lawmakers insist on monetisation of carbon farming. The European Parliament’s agriculture committee proposed to go beyond the scope of the recently unveiled EU framework for certifying carbon sinks in farming by providing for the remuneration and trading of negative emission certificates.
European Parliament’s first report on mental health wants more direct funding. Europeans’ mental health has been in decline for years and worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic, and following the EU Commission’s June communication on mental health, the European Parliament’s health committee has drafted the first report on mental health for lawmakers.
Australia, EU resume talks on free trade deal. Australia and the European Union will resume free trade talks on Thursday (31 August) with a teleconference between Australia’s Trade Minister Don Farrell and EU Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis, a month after the two sides failed to reach a deal.
What we are reading
Europe needs to think bigger to build its capital markets union, writes Fabio Panetta for Politico Europe
Why EU offshore wind is in trouble, Wester Van Gaal writes for the EU Observer
The Trump Trial Date Is a Big Mistake, writes Ross Douthat for The New York Times
The next week in politics
Activities in Brussels start to heat up next week.
EU Agriculture ministers will meet from 3 to 5 September, while EU Development ministers will meet from 4 to 5.
Political groups at the European Parliament will have their meetings.
Last but not least, the G20 meeting will take place next weekend in New Delhi, India.
Thanks for reading. If you’d like to contact us for leaks, tips or comments, drop us a line at benjamin.fox@euractiv.com / eleonora.vasques@euractiv.com or contact us on Twitter: @EleonorasVasques & @benfox83
[Edited by Alice Taylor]
